The Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, domestic macroeconomic data and global trends will dictate terms in the equity markets this week, analysts said. Trading activity of Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) will also influence markets, they added. "The Indian market will be closely monitoring the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for June 6-8, 2023. Aside from that, market participants will be keeping an eye on the progress of monsoon," said Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
It rained in the periphery of Delhi -- Aligarh in Uttar Pradesh and Karnal in Haryana -- but clouds hovered over the national capital, without giving any relief from the heat.
With the absence of any major immediate domestic trigger in sight, investors would focus on global trends and trading activity of foreign investors for further cues in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also guide the market. "This week is a truncated one with no major triggers expected. However, we anticipate sector-specific movements amid budget-related buzz.
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Though early days, meteorologists point towards a neutral La Nina during the initial phase of the four-month monsoon season this year that starts from June. If this holds true, by the time the rains hit the mainland, it could mean there would be one less reason to worry about the prospects of the monsoon this year. Weathermen said making any accurate prediction of how El Nino will behave and what impact it can have on the progress and distribution of rains is difficult to say at this point. A clear picture will emerge around late May or early June.
The southwest monsoon is expected to reach Kerala during the next two to three days, marking a sluggish start to the seasonal rains that are the lifeline of India's agri-based economy.
The move came days after the Supreme Court vacated the stay imposed by the Punjab and Haryana High Court on the trial in three sacrilege cases.
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Macroeconomic data, the pace of vaccination and global trends would be the major drivers for the domestic equity markets this week, analysts said. Besides, the progress of monsoon will also be monitored. "This week marks the beginning of the new month also, so participants will be eyeing the high-frequency indicators like auto sales and manufacturing PMI during the week. "Besides, the progress of monsoon will also remain on their radar.
Retail inflation declined to a five-year low of 3.54 per cent in July mainly on account of subdued prices of food items, and base effect, according to official data released on Monday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was 5.08 per cent in June 2024 and 7.44 per cent in July 2023.
The short-term inflation outlook for India is benign, and the expectation of a normal monsoon and moderating global prices of key imported items give credence to the projections made by the RBI and IMF, the Economic Survey said on Monday. However, to ensure long-term policy stability, the Survey 2023-24 suggested making focused efforts to increase the production of major oilseeds, expanding the area under pulses, and assess the progress in developing modern storage facilities for specific crops.
'Usually the average rainfall per day is around 8 mm and India is receiving 10 to 11 mm per day since the last one week.' 'July seems to be very good for the entire country.'
One of the attackers threatened the victims with a pistol, while the others were armed with sticks, the official said.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate at its upcoming monetary policy review meeting, taking place soon after the announcement of the Lok Sabha election results, amid inflation challenges, said experts. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may also refrain from rate cut as economic growth is picking up, notwithstanding the elevated interest rate of 6.5 per cent (repo) prevailing since February 2023. The meeting of the Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das headed MPC is scheduled for June 5 to 7.
According to the police, 16-17 members of a family from Sayyad Nagar in Pune's Hadapsar area had hired a private bus to visit the scenic spot near Lonavala for a picnic on the rain-soaked day.
The IMD, in its onset date forecast on May 15, had said the monsoon is likely to hit the southern state on June 5, four days after its normal arrival.
The Bombay high court on Monday said it cannot keep monitoring every road accident caused due to potholes and ultimately it is the city civic body's responsibility to ensure motorable roads and pedestrian-friendly footpaths.
Steady progress in June; north and central regions to get good pre-showers
Monsoon is expected to cover central and eastern India after Tuesday.
The southwest monsoon over the country is likely to be normal in July, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday in its forecast for the month.
Considering that the three assailants who shot Atiq Ahmed and his brother posed as journalists, the commission suggested the media "observe certain restraints while covering such incidents".
As the month ended with 33 per cent deficiency, which translates to around 67 per cent of the Long Period Average, several parts of the country have been witnessing drought-like situation.
Wholesale inflation fell to a 3-month low of 2.04 per cent in July on decline in prices of food items especially vegetables, government data released on Wednesday showed. The decline in wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation in July came after it rose for four months in a row till June, when it was 3.36 per cent. It was (-) 1.23 per cent in July last year. In April wholesale inflation stood at 1.19 per cent.
The country's unemployment rate in July fell to 6.80 per cent, the lowest level in the last six months, amid rising agriculture activities during monsoon, according to Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) data. The unemployment rate dropped to 6.80 per cent in July from 7.80 per cent in June, the CMIE data said. Rural unemployment declined 6.14 per cent to 272.1 million last month from 265.2 million or 8.03 per cent in June, it said.
According to latest data, crops have been sown in around 72.13 million hectares, which is 8.90 per cent less than the same period last year.
Quarterly earnings from IT majors Infosys and Wipro, macroeconomic data announcements and global cues would be the major drivers for the equity markets this week, said analysts. Leading IT companies Infosys and Wipro and other players such as Mindtree, Tata Elxsi and HDFC AMC would announce their financial results this week. Moreover, industrial production numbers, retail and wholesale inflation data would be released this week.
Reports said that in Telangana and Karnataka, excessive rains the past 10 days has threatened the standing green gram and maize crops and could negatively impact yields if the skies don't open up. But in the north-west and central parts of India, the resurgence of monsoon could not have come at a better time as oilseeds and pulses crops would otherwise had weathered if the rains didn't revive in August.
After a making a slow progress, the southwest monsoon is expected to gain momentum and advance further into several parts of drought-hit Maharashtra and central India.
All sub-regions have been receiving good rainfall except the North-east and east region of the country, where the deficiency has reached 23 per cent.
A group comprising top tech startups and unicorns has raised several "serious concerns" over a platform-based gig workers Bill proposed by the Karnataka government, saying it would hurt the ease of doing business. They told the state government the Bill in its current form would hamper operations and increase regulatory and compliance burden on the nascent gig and startup economy, according to sources.
The news will augur well for the country as large parts have been witnessing agriculture distress and water levels in reservoirs in west and south India have dipped to low levels.
'The real repo rate is very high in terms of core inflation.'
'Southwest Monsoon has advanced into remaining parts of Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab and thus it has covered the entire country today, the 26th June 2020,' the IMD said in its special Daily Weather Report.
The bias for the BSE benchmark index, technical charts suggest, is likely to remain bullish as long as the index holds above 75,600 levels for the rest of the year.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) seems to have taken a cautious stand over the World Meteorological Organisation's (WMO) projection of a 'poor monsoon' due to a probable 'El Nino' impact. The IMD did not agree with WMO's projections, saying, "El Nino and the progress of monsoon are not mutually exclusive events", and remained non-committal over its earlier projection of a "normal monsoon" for the June-September 2009 season.
Sowing had started on a sluggish note in several parts of the country because of delay in the onset of the monsoon but has picked up pace subsequently as the rains progressed and performed appreciably well in August.
'Modi knows the people here are opposed to this project, but he is using the might of government to push this port down our throats.'
Around 40 per cent of the country is staring at drought-like conditions ahead of the monsoon as water levels have receded sharply.
July and August are expected to receive 107 per cent and 104 per cent of rainfall